Through tracking and analysis by the Ukrainian monitoring group, a Russian Shahed attack drone loitered in Polish airspace for nearly two and a half hours before crashing. The official report confirmed that Poland’s air surveillance system failed to detect the drone at any stage of its flight.
(Russian Shahed drone)

Based on monitoring data, experts were able to trace the approximate flight path of the drone, which flew over Ukraine’s Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, and Lviv regions during the night of August 19–20. The straight-line distance from the border to the crash site in Osiny village is about 200 km. Considering the average speed of Russian strike drones is 120–150 km/h, assuming a straight-line trajectory, it would take about an hour and a half to cover this distance.

Since air raid alerts are deactivated 20–30 minutes after the threat disappears, it is likely that around 1:00 a.m. Kyiv time, the Russian drone left Ukrainian airspace, remained over Polish territory for another 2–2.5 hours, and then crashed at 3:22 a.m. Kyiv time, or 2:22 a.m. Warsaw time.

(Approximate flight path of the Russian Shahed drone that crashed in Poland on August 20, 2025)

It is important to note that such drones are equipped with anti-jamming navigation systems, so there are only two possible scenarios in which it could enter Poland:
1. It was intentionally directed into Polish territory.
2. The Shahed drone suffered an internal malfunction.

(Russian Shahed drone anti-jamming 11-channel satellite antenna)

Even if electronic warfare (EW) systems were used to disrupt its flight, once outside the combat zone, the drone’s autopilot would redirect it back to the target. Even if the drone entered Polish airspace due to EW interference, it would automatically redirect itself toward the target, as the onboard computer would recalculate its route to the preprogrammed destination.

Therefore, the likelihood that the drone operator set a target within NATO territory remains very high.